China

Xi Jinping’s Game

By Andrej Mrevlje |

A few days before the 2020 presidential election, America was in turmoil. While running for reelection, erratic President Trump was flying from one airport to another, landing for a couple of hours to make inflammatory speeches to big crowds of supporters who came to the tarmacs to admire him and Air Force One. The scenes were surreal, like in Fellini’s “Amarcord,” where the entire population of a small coastal town in northern Italy takes their little boats to the open sea to watch the passage of the gigantic SS REX, the ocean liner and pride of the Fascist regime in the middle of the night. The passengers in the boats wave and scream in adoration of the gigantic transatlantic ship, hoping perhaps to be taken aboard, to sail to a wonderland of fascism. Aroused by the same kind of dream, Trump supporters gathered on the tarmacs of airports in America where the U.S.’ biggest jet landed with the man who was promising more dreams, more triumphs, more victories and gigantic achievements — bigger than his gigantic plane, the backstage of his triumphant speeches. “Nobody can stop me from winning, not even the rigged elections the Democrats are preparing,” the president roared, announcing that he would never concede to Joe Biden and, if necessary, never leave the White House. His eerie words resounded over powerful loudspeakers, in stark contrast to the short speeches delivered with a calm voice by Democratic candidate Joe Biden, who respected quarantine guidelines and warned voters about the continued danger from the pandemic. It was a moment in which America could easily fall into chaos. So, U.S. General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, picked up the phone and called Li Zuocheng, the chief of the Joint Staff Department of the Chinese Central Military Commission. Informed by intelligence sources, Milley learned about Beijing’s concerns about Trump’s increasingly hostile rhetoric. Beijing feared that Trump might attack China.   

The second time Milley called his Chinese counterpart was on January 8, 2021, two days after Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol. Again, Milley tried to reassure the Chinese military command that the American government was stable and not an immediate threat to China. This September, when interrogated by the Senate Armed Services Committee, Milley described his actions as appropriate with his mandate to ensure strategic stability.

Imagine the picture in reverse. What if Xi Jinping, the man with absolute power in China, was struck by a paranoia similar to Trump’s? Imagine Xi making speeches about forces plotting against him. These rumors could make Americans think Xi Jinping had gone insane and was therefore capable of striking the U.S. in order to keep himself in the saddle of power. Would Li Zuocheng ring the Pentagon and warn the Americans about the actual situation if something similar was about to happen? Absolutely not! Xi Jinping, as supreme commander, would never tolerate any initiative of this kind. He would consider it disobedience, even when done by his top military commander. Fearing that any insubordination could spark a rebellion, causing instability and chaos in the country, endangering the Party and his position, Xi Jinping would silence and severely suppress any disobedience from the start. As nationalism in China is deeply rooted, trusting Americans in terms of war would be an act of treason and therefore followed by extreme punishment. 

For the time being, there is no hope that democracy or any kind of control over the regime in China is possible. Leadership cannot be criticized, discussed, or restricted by any organ of civil society. Formally, there is no independent political subject in China. There is also no independent media if we do not consider social networks that occasionally get louder than the regime. But these platforms are only active for a few hours before the authorities crackdown on them. As Xi Jinping and his predecessors stated many times, China will never follow the values and models of the Western world. In building socialism of Chinese characteristics, China is pursuing the Chinese dream. But, what is the Chinese dream? And how different is it from the American one that captured American citizens for decades until it melted in a pot? 

Here is how party boss Xi Jinping defines it: “We must make persistent efforts, press ahead with indomitable will, continue to push forward the great cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics and strive to achieve the Chinese Dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

While the American dream was based on the possibilities each individual could fulfill in the land of opportunities, the Chinese dream is a collective effort that implies the body of party, discipline, and sacrifices for the common cause. But there is another even more substantial distinction: Xi equates the Chinese dream with “fulfilling the great renaissance of the Chinese race.” Now, you may wonder, what does the renaissance mean? Is there some particular period in Chinese history Xi is referring to like Mussolini did to the glories of ancient Rome? 

“To realize the Chinese road, we must spread the Chinese spirit, which combines the spirit of the nation with patriotism as the core and the spirit of the time with reform and innovation as the core,” explained Xi, sounding like a freshman in philosophy studies, still short on tools for more elaborate and conceptual thinking. Luckily, Liu Mingfu, a retired Chinese colonel, believes to have a better and much more straightforward answer on what the Chinese dream might be. In his book “China Dream: Great Power Thinking and Strategic Posture in the Post-American Era,” Liu says that China’s leader shares his dream to make China the world’s dominant power.

At its most superficial level, the Chinese dream or the renaissance of the Chinese race simply means an economically prosperous and militarily potent China. The China of today is considered a moderately prosperous society, but by 2049 — the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic — according to the Chinese plan, it should be developed into a “modernized socialist country that is rich, strong, democratic, civilized and harmonious.” Undoubtedly, the world would welcome a modern, democratic and civilized China. But the country that wants to become the world’s dominant power is basing its superiority on the domination of one — and the Chinese race may not make all the other nations of the world happy. So this will not work. And the examples of Xinjiang and Tibet show just how Beijing might imagine the renaissance of the Chinese race. There is no way that one authoritarian regime would impose global control. There is no other way but a multicultural, democratic, and civilized way to run the world instead of the authoritarian, efficient, and disciplined world desired by Xi Jinping’s China — or America, or India, Russia, or Europe, for that matter. 

A few years ago, after he rose to power, Xi Jinping adopted the title of a “core” leader. Yonder wrote about this as an important milestone of the ambitious new leader.

Now, why does Xi Jinping need to be moved to the “core” of the party and the state that he already commands? The reason is the same as the two previous cases (Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping were two previous “core of the party leaders)  — to get that little extra power that brings him closer to the kind of absolute leadership that only the pope and Kim Jong Un have today. To ascribe him the aura of immortality that will enable him to accomplish his mission. What this mission is, we might be able to see better in the future. But there is no doubt that in order to be able to put himself at the “core” — a position that protects him from the banal power struggle — he needed to share his vision with other Chinese leaders who conceded this special power to him. This was the last time that Xi Jinping had to truly negotiate. Undoubtedly, this move will further erode the notion of collective leadership that has been set as the norm in Chinese politics since 2000.

When Xi became the “core” leader in demonstrating to potential rivals that he stood above the pack, we did not know what his plan was. Then three years ago, Xi had China’s constitution amended to abolish term limits for the three powerful offices he holds. Xi’s supporters said he must stay in office to push through vital reforms as long as he sees fit. His critics, a muted and fearful bunch in today’s China, see a dangerous weakening of institutions needed to prevent one-person rule. 

The above was the situation before the Sixth Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party met behind closed doors in early November. 370 full and alternate members of the Central Committee attended but, since the press and all other mortals are banned from participation in these rather secretive meetings, the media started to call it a conclave, comparable to the Vatican Conclave when the cardinals, the princes of the Church, isolate themselves into the Sistine Chapel to elect a new Pope. Not every Plenum elects a new pope. And when the Chinese Communist Party issued a historical resolution that anointed Xi Jinping one of its revered leaders, the discussion could be wrapped into the coded language of the Party’s liturgy that is not always comprehensive. However, this time, practically all the speeches during the Plenum only had one goal: cement Xi’s status as a transformational leader essential to ensuring China’s rise. The historical resolution set him in the party’s firmament of epoch-defining leaders, alongside Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Mao led China to stand up against oppression, Deng led it to prosperity and now Mr. Xi is leading it to strength — so goes the three-stage description of China’s rise repeated in the resolution.

  

Xi Jinping was already powerful before the historical resolution, but the document is intended to propel him into a new phase of influence before a Communist Party congress next year. That congress is likely to give Mr. Xi a third five-year term as party leader, breaking with the two-term pattern that emerged under his predecessors. It will also add political urgency to his policy priorities, including a “common prosperity” program intended to rein in economic inequality, as well as efforts to strengthen China’s homegrown technological capabilities, observes Chris Buckley.

Xi is still playing his cards close to his chest. While he defends Mao Zedong from harsh criticism, Xi also praises Deng Xiaoping’s reforms for unleashing China’s economic growth and has defended Deng’s decision to use armed forces to crush pro-democracy protests that spread across China in 1989. It seems he wants to please all the voters of next year’s Congress.

The words “leader for life” do not appear in the language summarizing the resolution passed at the Sixth Plenum. However, it praises Xi for “his profound thoughts and scientific theories and their implementation.” While many of these claims seem dubious, the Sixth Plenum has achieved what it set out to do: According to the decision of the Sixth Plenum, Xi Jinping is now the sole guiding force of the Chinese Communist Party, Liberation Army, and the Chinese government. In other words, if by some miracle the 20th Party Congress, in autumn 2022, does not confirm Xi Jinping as “chairman of everything”, as absolute leader of China, the possibility to counter China’s hostile leader will have to come from outside China, from the international community. 

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